SMM3, 19 March News: this morning, non-ferrous metals red fat green thin, as of 09:40 in the morning, Shanghai nickel rose, up nearly 1.1%, Shanghai aluminum closed up nearly 0.7%, Shanghai copper closed up nearly 0.1%, Shanghai tin reddish, Shanghai zinc fell nearly 0.1%. Shanghai lead fell by nearly 0.9%; On the nickel side, the profit-driven supply of ferronickel is expected to remain unchanged, but there is a production elasticity between the new domestic production capacity and the original production capacity, so it does not necessarily mean an increase in production, but it is expected to limit the price of ferronickel. In refining nickel, inventories continue to decline and no incremental strength is seen in the short term.
Crude oil futures soared nearly 2 per cent in early trading as global crude oil destocking was better than expected as a result of higher-than-expected OPEC implementation and slower growth in US crude oil production. According to the news, the OPEC cancelled a meeting scheduled for April and will meet in June to decide whether to extend the production cuts, by which time the market has already made a clear assessment of the impact of the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. While US President Donald Trump has long blamed the group for high oil prices, many OPEC members say the US sanctions policy is a key factor in rising oil prices.
Spot today:
Copper: the recent concern about the continued strength of crude oil is expected to support copper prices to break through the pressure level upward, in addition, LME did not hand over positions yesterday, COMEX and LME copper stocks both reduced, will give the price a boost. Spot today is still affected by the imminent implementation of domestic tax cuts in April, spot water to reduce tax differences close, high water and stalemate. It is expected that today's London copper 6420 to 6490 US dollars / ton, Shanghai copper 49100 to 49600 yuan / ton, spot water rise 800 to 1000 yuan / ton.
Aluminum: the domestic electrolytic aluminum storage is not smooth, the consumption has not improved obviously, the material runs in 13500 to 13800 yuan / ton within a day, the spot premium rises 180 to 220 yuan / ton to the contract of the month. Shanghai Aluminum's recent performance is strong, it is expected that today's spot discount on the current month's contract rose 180 to 220 yuan / ton, it is recommended that the downstream on-demand procurement.
Lead: lead two consecutive negative, a cumulative decline of 3.5%, market sentiment is more pessimistic, below look at the strength of $2000 support. The range is expected to range from US $2015 to US $2050 per ton. Overnight Shanghai lead trend is slightly stronger than Lun lead, there are signs of stabilization, but the upper deviation from the EMA is far, the upper pressure is greater, short-term waiting for the EMA to be repaired. The estimated range is 16850 to 16950 yuan per ton. The spot price in Shanghai is 17200 to 17250 yuan per ton.
Zinc: zinc recorded 3 consecutive negative further decline, although LME zinc inventory continued to decline, but the contradiction between supply and demand has not been further extreme, the upper integer gate pressure may be short-term or difficult to break through, within the day or still around the 10-day moving average at 2750-2800; Shanghai zinc recorded three consecutive Yin fell below the 20-day EMA support, with the gradual promotion of market tax arbitrage, Shanghai zinc will still be subject to selling pressure, while downstream consumption still needs to be observed, the strong upward momentum of the external disk converges, within a day or run at 21300-21800. Material 0 # made in China rose 450 to 500 in April and 500 to 550 in double swallows.
Nickel: the dollar continued to fall overnight, near a two-week low. Oil rose above $59 a tonne for the first time in four months, helped by OPEC-led production cuts and signs of falling US crude stocks. Dollar weakness, oil prices rose to support some of the colored strength, internal and external non-ferrous rose more and less, nickel rose 0.58%, Shanghai nickel 0.46%. Us factory orders, durable goods orders and other data will be released today, which is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12900 to 13100 US dollars per ton, 99500 to 101500 yuan per ton in Shanghai, and 102500 to 1045500 yuan per ton in spot prices.
Tin: the support level below Lunxi is about US $21000 / ton, and if it falls below, it will test the support level around 20700 yuan / ton. Shanghai tin is expected to continue to fall in the short term, the lower support level of 146000 yuan / ton. Spot market, Shanghai tin trend to maintain a weak consolidation, but the recent tax reduction news to attract holders to cherish the price, the market turned to a substantial rise in the market, today's spot is expected to 147500 to 149500 yuan / ton.
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